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  • MBS RECAP: Strong Start, Weaker Finish, Still Waiting for FOMC

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Bond markets had their ups and downs today, but ultimately, none of it really matters in the bigger picture. Whether we look at where trading levels have been over the past two weeks or where they could go after tomorrow's FOMC events, the movement of the past two days is exceptionally small; an afterthought really. There were no significant sources of inspiration for Treasuries or MBS today. The latter began the overnight session in good shape and fairly solid gains were in place by the start of the domestic session. After some morning weakness backed rates up toward unchanged levels, there was another solid bounce back into positive territory. Ever since 12:30pm, bonds have been leaking into weaker territory. It hasn't been severe, but just enough to bring us into the red on the day...(read more)

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  • Housing Market Implications of Millennials Moving Out

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    As the U.S. economy improves and adds jobs, younger Americans-millennials-are slowly starting to move out from their parents' basements , where a record number of them have been living for the past few years. They're not buying homes as much as they are renting them, but how much and where is crucial to know in order to understand where the housing recovery is headed. Over the past year, all the growth in net household formations has been among renters, according to the U.S. Census. For those 35 years old and younger, their home ownership rate has fallen from 44 percent to 36 percent over the past decade, which is why construction of multi-family apartments is at the highest level in a quarter-century this year. But back to that migration from the basement. How big is it? Millennials will spend...(read more)

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  • Mortgage Rates Improve Modestly Before Important Fed Announcement

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates experienced their first genuine improvement of the month today. The gains were nothing if not very small, but they ended an uncommonly long 11 business day streak of sideways to higher rates. 4.25% remains as the most prevalent conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios with the day-over-day changes being limited to closing costs. Essentially, the losing streak of the past 2 weeks was the market's way of getting into position for tomorrow's big announcement from the Fed. Market participants have been concerned that the Fed could change their verbiage in such a way as to suggest an earlier eventual rate hike. This debate has focused on the words "considerable time" which the Fed has been using to refer to how much time would likely pass between the end of asset purchases...(read more)

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  • MBS MID-DAY: Tentatively Holding Gains After Morning Weakness

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    It's generally been another uneventful day in the shadow of tomorrow's FOMC events. There just hasn't been anything on the calendar or any unscheduled market event that can compete with the big impact expected from tomorrow's Fed Announcement, forecasts, and press conference. As such, markets are "going through the motions" for lack of a better term. At current levels, this has been good for a bit of consolidation after hitting the weakest levels in months at the end of last week. Overnight Treasury trading was generally positive and 10yr yields were more than 3bps lower at the open. MBS were similarly in better shape with Fannie 3.5s up 7 ticks out of the gate. From there, however, bonds pulled back nearly to negative territory. They've since found their footing...(read more)

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  • SEC Probe of Bankrate; AmeriSave & CertusBank; Impac, Macquarie, and Non-QM

    Posted To: Pipeline Press

    How can we move forward as an industry when we can't even agree on how to pronounce the acronym for Truth-in-Lending? I have heard "TILA" pronounced "tee-luh" and also pronounced "till-uh." Not only that, but I have seen "RESPA-TILA" and "TILA-RESPA". I am sure the boys and girls at the Federal Reserve know how, especially as they'll be hosting a webinar on how the Integrated Rule will go into effect next August. "Join us on Wednesday, October 1 at 2PM EDT for a 90 minute webinar to answer some frequently asked questions about the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure rule. This will be the third in a series of webinars to address the new rule as creditors, mortgage brokers, settlement agents, software developers, and other stakeholders work to implement it over the next year. In this session, we...(read more)

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  • MBS Day Ahead: Today Suffers From One Major Issue: It's Not Tomorrow

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    What are we even supposed to do with today? Whether from the standpoint of market participant or market watcher, there's precious little to care about today when we all know it's tomorrow that determines the next big move. Adding some insult to injury , there aren't even any relevant pieces of economic data or scheduled events. This is actually for the best, though, as it gives markets a chance to reveal any latent urges before everyone's post-Fed urges are very much on the record. Adding more insult to injury is the fact that there's only one way for bond markets to be interesting today, and that would be with a move into weaker territory. Reason being, there's been so much selling pressure recently, that the technicals are riper and riper for a more developed correction...(read more)

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  • MBS RECAP: Technically Positive, but Might as well have been a Holiday

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Japan was out for a holiday today and US markets might as well have been. Apart from the first few minutes of the domestic session, today was one of the calmest days in terms of volatility in recent memory. From 8:30am on, Fannie 3.5 MBS held a range of 101-18 to 101-21 (less than an eighth of a point). 10yr yields held between 2.596 and 2.581. Against the backdrop of every other day of September, today is the most resoundingly positive for bond markets. That sounds a lot more fun than it is though. Reason being: today's strength was facilitated by the rampant weakness that preceded it. The past two weeks have been the worst since the first 2 of November 2013. Friday saw the weakest levels in over a month. Today's strength was merely a token correction to the broader trend. To say "all...(read more)

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  • Mortgage Rates Hold Steady; Volatility Ahead

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates managed to hold steady today, which matches the very best performance of any other day in September. In other words, rates have either been flat or higher every day for the past 11 days. As we discussed last week, this quick move to higher rates is based, to some unknown extent, on anxiety over the upcoming Fed Announcement. Market participants are concerned the Fed will change the verbiage of their official policy statement to indicate a potential rate hike earlier than expected. Bond markets respond to that concern with weakness and when bond markets are weaker, rates move higher. Interestingly enough, bond markets were actually somewhat stronger today, but it wasn't enough to make for a widespread improvement in lender rate sheets. Some lenders were, in fact, slightly better...(read more)

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  • Homeownership Slump Drives Rental Construction to 25 Year High

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Much has been made lately over the propensity of so-called millennials, the demographic cohort which is now between 18 and 34 years of age, to forgo homeownership. In its September Public Outlook Freddie Mac points out that this is not without an upside. The monthly report, written by Freddie Mac's Chief Economist Frank E. Nothaft and Deputy Chief Leonard Kiefer, concedes that the recovery from the Great Recession has been "extraordinarily slow" but it has picked up over the last couple of years and that increasing recovery has been led by the multifamily sector, especially the development of rental apartments. In July, housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million units and on an unadjusted basis was the highest monthly start rate in more than six years, 101,000...(read more)

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  • Potential Home Buyers Sidelined by Misconceptions

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Lack of knowledge and misinformation may be discouraging Americans from buying a home according to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo &Company. The survey, conducted in June by Ipsos Public Affairs, found that many prospective homebuyers do not take the plunge because of uncertainty about their ability to qualify for a mortgage or about navigating the homebuying process. The survey, "How America Views Homeownership," found that many Americans say their financial houses are in order. Eighty percent said they know how to handle their personal financial affairs and 82 percent claim they generally don't spend beyond their means. Only 27 percent said that they tend to spend their money and not think twice about it. Sixty-three percent, including more than half of the millennials (ages...(read more)

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