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  • MBS RECAP: Bonds Hold Gains in Afternoon; Slow, Inconsequential Session

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Whether today had ended up positive or negative, the assessment would be the same. It strains credulity to consider, but when human beings that are normally integral participants in bond markets are out of the office, things change. And said human beings have certainly already begun the holiday exodus. That means 2014 is effectively over , and the rest of the movement we see in MBS Prices will not necessarily be indicative of reality or offer any hints about the first trends of 2015. Today could have gone either way , and it happened to be good. A rally was the less eventful conclusion to this week, given the relatively sharp selling over the past 2 days. In other words, it acts to consolidate the recent range, rather than extend a counter-trend move. If I was to try to draw connections between...(read more)

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  • Mortgage Rates Hold the High 3's

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates found their footing today, moving slightly lower after spending the past two days rising at the quickest pace in months. Most lenders had seen enough strength in the morning to offer lower rates right out of the gate, but some improved rate sheets later in the day as bond markets crept into better territory. The gains bring 3.875% back into clear focus as the most logical, most prevalent conforming 30yr fixed rate quote for top tier borrowers. Some of the more aggressive lenders will be quoting 3.75% by default, but they're the exception. There were no significant headlines or events to motivate financial markets. Indeed, today's movement has more to do with random chance than anything. At this time of year, market participants begin taking time off for the holidays. Market sentiment...(read more)

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  • Real Estate Investors Profit From Hidden Markets

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    RealtyTrac devotes the bulk of its most recent edition of HousingNewsReport , its monthly web magazine to detailing some r eal estate investment strategies . The lead article by Octavio Nuiry, Managing Editor gives advice compiled from interviews with and articles by several successful investors. However, even if the advice did come from Warren Buffet we can hardly get excited about such business models as buying distressed properties or finding undervalued ones. However one useful theme did emerge from several of the investors featured in Nuiry's article, "Real Estate Investment Strategies for 2015." The message was characterized by Tony Youngs, a Georgia investor as finding the "hidden market," one to which no one else is paying attention. Youngs' hidden market is property just about to enter...(read more)

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  • MBS MID-DAY: Us Bond Markets Grounded by Europe; Erasing Some Losses

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    The past two days saw a decisive bounce in Treasuries precipitated by what might have been a decisive bounce in European bond markets. As of this the wee hours of this morning, Europe missed their window to trade bond yields through the ceilings that would have confirmed such a bounce. German Bund yields instead met with resistance right in line with yesterday's highs. All this despite the fact that Germany had strong economic data to motivate bond market selling. In other words, European markets effectively "called off" the sell-off and returned to orbit near all-time low yields. Today's strength in Treasuries is a simple reaction to the realization they were offsides. It's a safe bet that traders who sold Treasuries short on the run down to 2% are covering those bets...(read more)

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  • FDIC's Study on Higher Rates' Impact; Servicing Continues to Trade; Energy Efficient MBS

    Posted To: Pipeline Press

    My brain can't keep track of all the statistics coming out of lending. But you won't find many people who will argue that real estate & credit have not rebounded. Zelman and Associates reported that in Q3 of 2014, the total number of loans in delinquency and in the foreclosure process was down 20% YoY and 50% lower than the peak in Q4 of 2009. In November, default notices declined 15% based upon 11 states and were down 9% YoY and the number of homes repossessed by lenders decreased 9%. REO filings are currently at the lowest level since mid-2007 and REO listings were down 16% YoY. The total industry owned 275,000 properties in REO inventory as of 3Q2014 down 21% YoY and 59% below the peak. Education holds the key to economic success according to a report published by Wells Fargo Securities...(read more)

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  • MBS Day Ahead: Grains of Salt, No Duh, and Bearish Divergences

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Congratulations! You've reached the end of 2014 in bond markets. Everything from here on out is simply the epilogue to an already-concluded story. 10yr yields went from 3.0 to 2.2, give or take. At current levels, the only moves that would really change the bigger-picture tone would be roughly 20 basis points in either direction (so 2.40 or 2.00). Why the early close? First of all, it's not really the end of 2014. It's just that events and trading reactions will be taken with heavy grains of salt from here on out. Past precedent suggests that trading volumes will be declining steadily toward 10% of normal by Christmas Eve. Changes in MBS prices will continue to influence rate sheets, of course, but there's less to be concluded about their significance to the road ahead. In other words: cruise...(read more)

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  • MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Flat-Line After Overnight Weakness

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Depending on where you want to draw the line between the overnight and domestic sessions, nothing really happened today. Bond markets were basically done doing much of anything by 9:15am, and even that early morning movement was primarily driven by late-day trading in Europe. It was as if yesterday's FOMC Announcement was the last major event that market participants were waiting around for and the overnight session simply gave Asia and Europe a chance to respond . That's the most conventional way to view today's movement, anyway. The counterculture frame of reference (and my personal favorite) is that European markets were already turning by Tuesday, but logically would be waiting to see what the FOMC Announcement had to say, if anything. It ended up saying nothing, and thus got...(read more)

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  • Mortgage Rates are Actually Higher Today

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates moved higher at a much quicker pace today. This runs counter to the most widely-circulated weekly rate report from Freddie Mac, which indicates a new low for 2014. The Freddie data isn't wrong, just a little behind. Still, it's important for consumers to understand that today's rates are no longer the year's lowest. This is a fairly common discrepancy between Freddie's rate survey and reality, and it's only a problem when markets move sufficiently after their survey results are in. Considering that usually occurs by Tuesday, you may already be able to guess why such a survey is now outdated. Simply put, yesterday and today combined for the biggest 2-day move higher in rates since April. Today's adjustment was much bigger than yesterday's, and was completely unavailable to be...(read more)

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  • 2014 Economy and Housing: From Deep Hole to Whimper

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Referring to its " roller-coaster pattern of economic growth," Fannie Mae summarized the economy and housing in 2014 as a year that started with a deep hole and ended with a whimper. A brutally cold first quarter put economic growth in that deep hole at the beginning but it came back "with a vengeance" making the second quarter the strongest for growth in more than two years. The third quarter saw growth flag again and it "is poised to weaken further, as some unsustainable forces that drove activity in the third quarter reverse in the final quarter." Fannie Mae's Macroeconomic Forecasting Team headed by Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Doug Duncan reprise 2014 in the December edition of its Economic and Strategic Research report. They see the year overall as one in which economic growth...(read more)

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  • Lenders Gloomy about Purchase Demand and Profits

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Fannie Mae's writers use the word "stable" repeatedly to describe many of the findings from its fourth quarter 2014 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey, especially where the senior executives completing the questionnaire detailed their operational expectations. The November survey found fewer lenders reporting tightened credit standards. Thirteen percent of respondents said their standards had tightened for GSE eligible loans compared to 28 percent in the first quarter of 2014. More lenders reported their institutions had loosened standards for non-GSE-eligible loans than reported tightening them, the second consecutive quarter this pattern has prevailed. The number of senior executives reporting that demand for loans for single-family home purchases either declined significantly or stayed the...(read more)

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