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  • Mortgage Rates Mildly Lower; Volatile Week Ahead

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates caught a break today and were able to ease just slightly lower heading into the weekend. This is somewhat refreshing because yesterday's bigger move higher was the kind of thing that historically results in further upward pressure. The gains weren't quite enough to get the average top tier rate quote back into the 3's for conforming, 30yr fixed loans. 3.875% and 3.75% remain viable for some borrowers looking to pay more money upfront in exchange for a lower monthly payment. In general though, 4.0% is the most prevalent quote today. As it stands, it looks like rates are finding some equilibrium heading into a series of significant events next week. The biggest potential for movement will be mid-week when the Fed likely announces an end to QE3, the 3rd round of quantitative easing...(read more)

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  • MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Coast Out Uneventfully After Morning Volatility

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Earlier today, competing short term trends and considerations made for several salient swings between gains and losses. While MBS and Treasuries never dipped meaningfully into negative territory on the day, they quickly gave up some fairly strong gains on at least 2 separate occasions. On top of that, the overnight session began with a swift move right out of the gate. Taken together, there was simply a good amount of movement and "lead changes." Around noon (just after the second bounce off the day's weakest levels), I put an overlay on the Treasury chart showing a potential consolidation into the close. The trendlines ran through 2.28 on the high end and 2.26 on the low end, which is "the gap" that we've been paying so much attention to this week. This is how things...(read more)

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  • MBS MID-DAY: Volatility Within a Range, but Little Change

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    If today's bond market movements were a ball game, it would be the kind you like to see, with numerous lead changes , no runaway victory, and the home team leading going into the half. Bonds started out in stronger territory overnight as the NYC Ebola case was confirmed and global markets sympathized with the risk-off bid (i.e. stocks sold, bonds bought). The morning's most significant event hit just after US markets opened when sources said that 25 banks were set to fail the European Central Bank's stress test. Official results are expected on Sunday. Bond markets initially rallied on the news, but it was short-lived. While the news was big, it wasn't altogether unexpected. That brief, initial rally set the day's floor under bond yields and we've been weaker ever since...(read more)

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  • Suddenly, The New Home Sales Trend is Flat Again

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    New home sales increased only slightly in September, up 0.2 percent over August, bringing the annual rate of those sales to 467,000. Sales were up 17.0 percent from the September 2013 pace of 399,000 units. Perhaps bigger news in today's joint release from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development was the revision to the August new home sales number. The initial report of those sales indicated a very significant 18 percent increase over July's number, sending sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 and over the half-million mark for the first time since May 2008. The estimate was well over analysts' expectations; the consensus had been 430,000 units. Turns out the analysts were closer to the mark than the government agencies which today downgraded the...(read more)

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  • Fannie Mae sees Growth Expanding, Downgrades Loan Origination Expectations

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Fannie Mae said on Thursday that real economic growth in the last two quarters of 2014 appear poised to exceed 3.0 percent , providing a solid basis for growth in 2015. However the housing recovery will remain "choppy." The October Economic and Housing Outlook published by Fannie Mae says reduced fiscal uncertainty and slowing monetary intervention has enabled momentum in the private sector to build while total government spending no longer declined. Those government cutbacks had been masking improvement in the private economy. Housing contributed to growth as well, rebounding strongly in the second quarter from sharp drops in the previous two quarters The company's Economic and Strategic Research Team, headed by Doug Duncan, chief economist, see a variety of global factors slowing growth and...(read more)

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  • Even Bad News is Good in September Foreclosure Summary

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    September appears to have been another month in which loan performance improved and the states continued to slog through the overhang of delinquent mortgages left over from, in some cases, the early days of the housing crash. Black Knight Financial Services released a "first look" at its data for the month showing overall improvement in delinquency and foreclosure metrics. The inventory of delinquent loans - those for which one or more payments have been missed but the loan is not yet in foreclosure - declined by 3.90 percent or 117,000 loans in September, nearly reversing a huge 146,000 delinquent loan increase in August. This brought the 30+ day rate down to 5.67 percent and was a 12.22 percent drop representing 388,000 fewer loans compared to September 2013. Of the 2.88 million loans that...(read more)

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  • Update on Chase Lawsuit; More Potential Buybacks; Upcoming Events and Trainings

    Posted To: Pipeline Press

    According to Zillow Real Estate Research, home ownership rates among millennials have declined over the past four decades mainly due to changing family structures. Zillow honed in on marital status and employment rates to determine how many young adults are purchasing homes. Its staff found that the homeownership rate is above historical levels for young married couples that are engaged in full time employment, as well as single young adults working full time - but has declined since the recession. The homeownership rate has declined over the past four decades among married couples, where only one spouse is working full time and the other is unemployed. The homeownership rate among married couples where one spouse is working full time and the other spouse is working part time has slightly declined...(read more)

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  • MBS Day Ahead: New Home Sales and Second Chances

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    We approached Thursday's session with a mainstream viewpoint and alternative, more bullish possibilities to consider. The mainstream viewpoint (among analysts, strategists, traders, etc) generally held that rates would be moving higher after last week's big rally. From there, specifics weren't as unanimous, but I saw a lot of calls for Treasury yields to make it to the 2.4-2.6% range before potentially bouncing back for another rally. That's still entirely possible, but the more bullish alternative would be for the post-rally correction to be shorter-lived, and to sputter out somewhere near "the gap" between 2.26 and 2.28 created on the morning of October 14th (The previous Friday closed at 2.28 and the 14th opened at 2.26, making for an uncommon gap in yields). As...(read more)

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  • Mortgage Rates Actually Moved Higher Today

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates did as expected and departed their recently more stable range today. Unfortunately, we got the less enjoyable of the two potential departures with rates moving higher at a moderate pace. At the same time, the world's most widely-followed weekly check on rates from Freddie Mac indicated a move in the other direction! The discrepancy is a result of Freddie's survey methodology. It's not that the data is inaccurate --simply stale . Here's what it means when Freddie says rates were lower this week: Human survey respondents chiming in at some point between Sunday and Monday this week reported lower rate quotes to Freddie than they did at some point between Sunday and Wednesday last week. Given that Freddie tells us they receive more responses earlier on in their survey periods AND...(read more)

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  • MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Weaker; Europe a Bigger Motivator Than Stocks

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Today was decidedly negative for bond markets. 10yr yields found no solace in "the gap" from 2.26 to 2.28 and instead moved right through to 2.30. There are other potentially supportive ceilings overhead, but we would have liked to have seen stronger support at the gap in order to maintain a more bullish stance. In simpler terms, it's OK that rates have been moving higher. It's a normal aftershock following big moves like that seen last Wednesday. It would have been even more OK if they'd stopped moving higher yesterday. The fact that they did not suggests a defensive approach heading into next week's FOMC Announcement and Treasury auction cycle. On a positive note, we did get some good information about current trading motivations. US bond markets opted to follow...(read more)

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