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  • MBS Day Ahead: Big Potential for Bond Markets, for Better or Worse

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    On the afternoon of the Thursday before last, bond markets had just gone on their run to the best levels in over a month on the geopolitical flare-up (that was the day that begin with the Malaysian Airliner and ended with Israel announcing a ground assault in Gaza). As we discussed at the time, the geopolitical risk situation would have to continue to be as surprisingly negative as it had been on Thursday in order for bond markets to continue past the year's best levels. While overseas events remained troubling--continuing to offer large-scale tragedy--they didn't offer the same sort of large-scale surprises. With that being the case, each passing moment since then has been building to today. That sounds pretty dramatic, but here's why it's true . Shocking as it may seem, there...(read more)

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  • MBS RECAP: Bonds Bounce Back From Mid-Day Swoon

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Markets were more active today, offering a nice little warm up for what promises to be an even more active day tomorrow. The movement came in waves, beginning with a strong bond market rally at the start of the European trading session. US Treasuries came along for the ride, resulting in slightly stronger morning levels for Treasuries and MBS. With German Bund yields pushed up against all-time lows, Treasuries took over the duty of providing cues for the rest of the bond market. There was big buying right after the 'pit' open, very likely linked to portfolio managers adjusting holdings for month-end. That buying brought yields low enough to trigger a bit of a snowball rally to start the day "Snowball rally" generally refers to short positions getting forced to become buyers...(read more)

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  • Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower; Volatility Ahead

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates were slightly lower today, holding inside a low and narrow range that's been intact for nearly 2 weeks. The movement was small enough that some lenders are unchanged compared to yesterday, but they're the exception. The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for flawless scenarios is still a bit of a toss-up between 4.25% and 4.125%. Today's improvement tips the scales toward 50/50 whereas 4.125% was less prevalent yesterday. For about the same amount of time that rates have been low and stable, we've been anticipating the next 3 days in financial markets. In short, there is an impressive confluence of data and events that stands as good of a chance to break the monotony as anything. Rates could either bounce back up toward the previous 2014 range, or they could improve...(read more)

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  • MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Back Near Unchanged Levels after Stronger Start

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    The day started out well for Treasuries and MBS for a variety of reasons. European bond markets have been the most reliable motivation for overnight movement in Treasuries and last night was no exception. This time around German Bund yields (a good benchmark for overall "EU bond markets") pushed into new all-time lows. The correlation with Treasuries was stark . 10yr yields saw their highest levels of the night just seconds before EU bond markets opened. Yields began moving lower right at the open and Treasuries followed immediately. Both EU and US trading leveled off by 5am, and then it was Treasuries' turn to lead. A glut of month-end buying came in just after 8:30am, and this in turn started a snowball of bond buying that further extended the gains. The early morning positivity...(read more)

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  • Seasonally-Adjusted Home Prices Declined in May

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Home price gains continued to slow in May, posting smaller annual increases than In April the S&P Dow Jones Indices said today. The Indices' Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Index was up 9.4 percent compared to May 2013 and the 20-City was 9.3 percent higher. In April the two composites posted annual increases of 10.9 and 10.8 percent respectively. Both Composites increased by 1.1 percent from April to May and for the second straight month all 20 cities had positive returns. But that's only true on an unadjusted basis. When it comes to to home price data, seasonal buying/selling trends tend to be kind to prices in the Spring and Summer months. Adjusting for those affects, prices were down 0.3 percent in May--the first seasonally-adjusted decline in more than 2 years. Regionally, Charlotte...(read more)

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  • New Products; Regions Bank's Cuts; PHH, NationStar in the News; Radian/NAREB Partnership

    Posted To: Pipeline Press

    My plan has always been pretty simple with my children: feed and clothe them in a loving home, make sure they get a college education followed by a good job, then at some point, send them an invoice. But I've been told by the San Francisco Fed that I should ask my accounts receivable gal to stop calling my oldest. In, Wage Growth Gap for Recent College Grads , Bart Hobijn and Leila Bengali writes, "Median starting wages of recent college graduates have not kept pace with median earnings for all workers over the past six years. This type of gap in wage growth also appeared after the 2001 recession and closed only late in the subsequent labor market recovery. The wage gap in the current recovery, however, is substantially larger and has lasted longer than in the past. The larger gap represents...(read more)

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  • MBS Day Ahead: Last Day of Tame Data Before Things Get Serious

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Yesterday proved to be anything but serious based on the narrow trading range. 10yr yields only used up half of the range they'd carved out on Friday and MBS, even less than that. With none of the week's big-ticket market movers hitting until tomorrow, it feels like bond markets are biding their time until then. At times like this, it's not uncommon for both stocks and bonds to travel together , generally hitting intraday highs and lows together. This was the case yesterday. It doesn't necessarily mean anything interesting about the future, but it builds a case for that "biding time" concept. It can also be more prevalent around the end of the month as some investors begin adjusting portfolio balances based on updated indexes. If calendar events stand a chance to cause...(read more)

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  • MBS RECAP: Some Weakness and a Few Reprices, but Mostly Holding Ground

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    More due to timing and coincidence than anything, we got a few negative reprices this afternoon. Shortly thereafter, prices moved right back mid-point of today's trading range and never left . That said, things were a bit weaker in Treasuries. A small amount of weakness was intact after the overnight session, but bonds were able to move into positive territory just after 10am. The most helpful factor was a stock market sell-off at the same time. It would then prove to be unhelpful into the afternoon as Treasury yields moved higher with stocks. MBS are simply one step removed from that 'stock lever' movement, and thus lost less ground . The incremental weakness in Treasuries could also have to do with the week's upcoming auction supply. MBS Pricing Snapshot Pricing shown below...(read more)

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  • Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Start Important Week

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates didn't move much to start the week, with a nearly equal number of lenders moving both higher and lower. On average, rates were just barely higher. Even then, the actual rates being quoted are the the same today versus Friday with the only differences seen in the form of closing costs. The most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate remains at 4.25% for flawless scenarios with 4.125% available to a lesser extent. As the week progresses, so should the movement in the world of interest rates. Mortgages and Treasury yields alike have been bumping around at the lower end of their ranges in 2014. There's a decent chance that this week's events will either help break those ranges, or prompt a bounce back toward higher levels. Bottom line, rates have been low and sideways, but...(read more)

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  • CFPB Seeks to Modify HMDA Data Collection; Raises Privacy Concerns

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Public comments are being requested a a new proposed rule for collecting data under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA). The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) said the new rule includes changes the could help in shedding more light on consumers' access to mortgage credit . The Bureau said it also aims to simplify the reporting process for financial institutions. HMDA, enacted in 1975, requires that many lenders report information regarding home loans for which they receive applications or originate or purchase. The information is available to both the public and to regulators who can use it to monitor whether financial institutions are serving the needs of their communities and to identify discriminatory lending patterns. The Dodd Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection...(read more)

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