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  • MBS RECAP: Same Old Story: Minor Volatility and Modest Euro-Driven Gains

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    In yesterday's recap, we discussed the phenomenon whereby most of the market movement has been happening overnight during these Euro-centric times, with the US trading hours seeing comparatively less volatility. Same old story today, but more impressive! Bond markets managed to shrug off THREE stronger-than-expected economic reports, including a revision to GDP that took Q2 up to 4.2%. Yet not only did that data never materialize into selling pressure, but neither did the rest of the data or stock market gains. Fannie 3.5s traded a fairly narrow range and never dipped into negative territory. They're heading out an eighth of a point higher. The scariest dip happened heading into 2pm, but bonds bounced back. There was brief, modest reprice risk at the lows today. MBS Pricing Snapshot...(read more)

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  • Mortgage Rates Fall For Sixth Straight Day

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates fell modestly for an impressive sixth straight day today. Yet again, we're seeing little attention paid to the events in the US that NORMALLY influence interest rates. Case in point, stronger economic data typically pushes rates higher, and three out of three economic reports were stronger than expected today. The dark horse market consideration continues to be Europe. Specifically, expectations for further accommodation from the European Central Bank combined with real economic deterioration in the Eurozone are motivating record low rates in European bond markets and US markets are interconnected enough to get some of that benefit. We talked about this in more detail on Tuesday: ( Read More: How Long Will Low, Flat Mortgage Rates Last? ). The cumulative effect of the 6 days...(read more)

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  • MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Holding Stronger Territory Despite Stronger Data

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Even the confirmation of a 4%+ GDP and the strongest read on Pending Home Sales in 11 months were not enough to wrest control of bond market momentum from Europe. Particularly, market participants widely expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to announce some form of quantitative easing (QE) by March 2015. The ECB has not been shy about telegraphing that likelihood and markets have not been shy about pricing it in. It's dominated bond market momentum since early April and continues to make domestic economic data look irrelevant for Treasuries and MBS. After all, ALL THREE of this morning's economic reports were stronger than expected, yet MBS are up 5 ticks and 10yr yields are down 2.5bps. Both are at the best levels in weeks and near their best levels in over a year. Bottom line, we...(read more)

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  • Subservicer and New Jumbo Products; Flagstar and the CFPB; Theory of M&A

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    What's this? The borrower receives a cat when their mortgage closes? What would the CFPB say? Will fleas lead to a class action lawsuit a year down the road? Would the DOJ claim canine disparate treatment? Besides, for many people, not receiving a cat would be a better selling point. There has been a huge rise in servicing by small and mid-sized lenders, and due to potential liability most turn to a subservicer. LoanCare, part of the Black Knight family of companies, is a leading national provider of full-service, interim, component and back-up subservicing as well as servicing performance solutions to the mortgage industry . With subservicing volumes exceeding 550,000 loans totaling over $110 billion in unpaid principal balance (UPB), "LoanCare has been the smart solution for subservicing...(read more)

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  • Pending Home Sales Highest in Nearly a Year

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Favorable housing conditions were credited for leading pending home sales higher in July to their best level since August 2013 . Pending sales as measured by purchase contract signings rebounded from a slight dip in June that interrupted three straight months of steady gains. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) compiled by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) rose 3.3 percent to 105.9 from 102.5 in June but is still 2.1 percent below the July 2013 level. It is the third straight month the Index has been above 100, considered an average level of contract activity. The gains were broad-based with only a slight decline in the Index in the Midwest. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said, "Interest rates are lower than they were a year ago, price growth continues to moderate and total housing...(read more)

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  • MBS Day Ahead: Busiest Day of Economic Data, but Dark Horses in Europe

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Today is the busiest day of the week for domestic economic data and Treasury Auctions. The 8:30 time slot brings Jobless Claims and the 2nd revision of 2nd quarter GDP. At 10am, there's Pending Home Sales and the week's last Treasury auction hits at 1pm. Given that the first reading of Q2 GDP is the one that flipped the script from -2.9 to +4.0 , this revision is potentially very important in building a sense of "what's really going on with GDP." But even with all that recent relevance, there are scheduled events outside our domestic calendar that could be just as meaningful. In fact, they could do even more to set the tone between now and next Thursday. We're talking about the inflation readings in the Eurozone --largely because inflation is seen as the lynchpin for...(read more)

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  • MBS RECAP: Yet Again, Treasuries Inspired by Europe and MBS Underperform

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Both MBS and Treasuries started the day in good shape as a bout of universally downbeat data washed over the Eurozone. Speculation for some measure of central bank action at next week's meeting (European Central Bank, to be clear) also helped. German Bunds ended up trading briefly under 0.90%. As the day progressed, Treasuries began to outperform MBS noticeably. This was especially apparent when 10's made new lows heading into 3pm while MBS continued bumping their heads on a ceiling at 102-27. One of the updates on MBS Live devotes more time talking about this underperformance. Here's an excerpt: Long story short, MBS were less attractive at the spread levels achieved this morning. On top of that, we seem to have some organic resistance at 102-27 in Fannie 3.5s. This has been an...(read more)

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  • Mortgage Rates Closing in on 2014 Lows

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates fell by an almost imperceptible amount today. Some lenders were actually unchanged or slightly higher. The actual NOTE rates quoted today would be identical to yesterday, with the only differences being seen in the form of modestly lower closing costs. This means that 4.125% stays intact as the most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios. All that having been said, the slow trickle of improvement is gradually bringing rates closer to their best levels in 2014. It would only take another few days of these improvements to get there. The bond markets that underlie mortgage rates started strong today, once again benefiting from strength in European bond markets. We talked about this phenomenon at length yesterday ( Read More: How Long Will Low, Flat...(read more)

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  • Housing Market Normalizing... Very Slowly

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Freddie Mac said today that the housing recovery continues to be a primarily local phenomenon . While markets with strong economies and favorable demographics are continuing to improve at a strong pace most markets are still generally weak and the housing market as a whole continues to plod along The company released its most recent Multi-Indicator Market Index (MiMi) on Wednesday, with a current value of 73.7. This indicates a weak housing market overall, with only a slight improvement (0.04 percent) from May to June and a 3-month positive trend of 0.16 percent. On a year-over-year basis the MiMi has risen by 7.67 percent. MiMi combines proprietary Freddie Mac data with current local market data to assess where the nation's housing market as well as those in each of the 50 states and the District...(read more)

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  • Home Price Increases Lower than Inflation in Some Areas

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Home prices have now increased on a quarterly basis 12 consecutive times. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said yesterday that the 12 th increase in its purchase-only seasonally adjusted House Price Index (HPI) was a 0.81 percent rise in the second quarter of 2014. The seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was up 0.4 percent from May, its seventh consecutive monthly increase and the 23 rd month it has gained out of the last 24. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE A closer look at the quarterly numbers however confirms the data reported by Case-Shiller, Core-Logic, and others; those price increases are far from being as muscular as they once were. Quarterly increases peaked in Q2 of 2013 at 2.29 percent (9.14 percent annualized) and annual increases hit a high of 8.30...(read more)

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