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  • MBS RECAP: Sideways Day for MBS Despite Weakening Treasuries

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Fannie 3.5s stayed inside a 4 tick (.125) range today despite a round of upbeat economic data at 10am and a clear trend toward higher yields in Treasuries. This isn't an uncommon divergence when Treasury yields have bounced at recent lows, as they did on Thursday and Friday. Part of the reason is the general phenomenon of MBS simply moving less in either direction. That's compounded in this case by Treasuries' role as a hedging vehicle for corporate bond issuance (large companies who plan to issue bonds frequently sell and buy Treasuries to protect against market movements while their deals are being finalized). Whatever the combination of factors, the result is a 10yr yield that moved more than 3bps higher over the course of the day vs Fannie 3.5 prices that held relatively steady...(read more)

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  • Mortgage Rates Bounce Higher Before Challenging 2014 Lows

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates were higher today, ending nearly a week and a half of modest improvements. While no individual day stood out during that time, the combined effect took rates extremely close to their lowest levels of the year. Had today moved in a more friendly direction, some lenders would be at 2014 lows. Instead, we remain in the same narrow range that's characterized the past 4 months. The most prevalent conforming 30yr fixed rate quote is unchanged at 4.125%, but the closing costs would be higher than they were on Friday. Whereas last week's day to day changes were exceptionally small, things could be getting more volatile this week . That said, volatility would be relative to that calm baseline. So we're not talking about the risk of 4.125 quickly becoming 4.375% or 3.875--simply that closing...(read more)

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  • HELOC Resets Still a Concern

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Home Equity Lines of Credit or HELOCs are one area of focus of the July Mortgage Monitor issued by Black Knight Financial Services on Tuesday. The company said there is still concern about possible payment shock for homeowners with HELOCS as the millions put in place during the housing boom reset and begin to amortize. Black Knight estimates that at least 2.5 million borrowers face these resets over the next three years. At that point the period during which borrowers can draw down on their home equity through these loans will end and the loans will convert from an interest only payment schedule to a fully amortizing one. The average increase in payments is estimated at $250 per month. According to Kostya Gradushy, Black Knight's manager of Research and Analytics, this average could increase...(read more)

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  • Eleven States Set New Home Price Peaks

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Home prices increased continued in July and those increases continue to be broad-based CoreLogic said on Tuesday. The company's Home Price Index (HPI) report says that prices nationwide including distressed sales (short sales and sales of bank-owned real estate) were up 1.2 percent from June to July and increased 7.4 percent compared to July 2013. July thus becomes the 29 th month in which prices increased on an annual basis. CoreLogic points out however that these are no longer double-digit increases . The HPI which excludes distressed sales gained 6.8 percent on a year-over-year basis and was up 1.1 percent from June. The HPI which excludes distressed sales increased in every state and the District of Columbia. Arkansas was the only state to post a decline - 0.9 percent - when distressed...(read more)

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  • Construction Spending Highest Since December 2008

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Construction spending in July was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $981.3 billion the Census Bureau said today--the highest since December 2008. That was an increase of 1.8 percent from June's revised estimate of $963.7 billion (up from the original estimate of $950.2 billion) and was 8.7 percent higher than the estimate of $906.6 billion in July 2013. Total residential spending was at an annual rate of $363.5 billion compared to $360.8 billion in June and $337.9 billion a year earlier, increases of 0.7 and 7.6 percent respectively. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis total construction spending in July was $88.6 billion compared to $86.70 billion in June and $83.3 billion a year earlier. Non-seasonally adjusted residential spending was $33.3 billion. Through the end of July the 2014...(read more)

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  • MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Weaker to Start September; MBS Outperforming

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Bond markets had been setting up for the extended weekend by being cautious about getting caught on the wrong side of this week's trade. Consider the following factors : A perpetual trend toward lower yields in 2014 Another more clearly-delineated trend lower in July/Aug Geopolitical flare-ups in full force An ECB meeting that might produce new news on QE With these in mind, the bigger risk for bond market participants was that they wouldn't be set up for rates to go as low as they might keep going this week. Long story short, there may well have been some excess positivity in bond markets heading into the weekend. It's not an oversimplification to think of this like a fighting force raising defenses for an attack that never comes and then lowering those defenses. This theme was...(read more)

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  • FHFA Sets Affordable Housing Goals, Requesting Public Comment

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is seeking public comment on a set of preliminary affordable housing goals for the two government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the next three years. There is a single set of single family financing goals for both GSEs and separate goals for each covering multifamily units. FHFA is required by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 to establish these annual housing goals for the GSEs. The agency is also proposing three alternative approaches for establishing single family housing goals. Alternative 1, would use the current two-step process which involves setting both a prospective benchmark level and a retrospective market level measure based on Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data. Alternative 2 would set only prospective...(read more)

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  • Angelo Mozilo Interview; NMLS & UST News; Lots of Agency News Including 203(k) Proposals

    Posted To: Pipeline Press

    If you don't open up one other link in this e-mail, at least open this link to a photo of a sign that surely has applications to residential lending. (Although this is pretty cool too. Somehow, somewhere, in this short video there is an analogy to lenders dealing with the current, and expected, compliance environment). What is Angelo Mozilo up to? Well, aside from living his life, he is granting interviews to Bloomberg . The industry, and especially CEOs, is watching any civil lawsuits that may arise as a bellwether for future litigation at a personal level. Private mortgage insurance probably wasn't a BBQ discussion topic over the weekend, but plenty of high IQ folks are thinking about it. The latest piece is written by one of the directors of MGIC (Mark Zandi), and Jim Parrott (with the Urban...(read more)

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  • MBS Week Ahead: Short and Busy With at Least One Major Market Mover on Tap

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    While the week ahead is shorter than normal thanks to Labor day, it's no less relevant. In fact, it's probably quite a bit more relevant than anything we had in August for several very good reasons. None of those reasons have anything to do with the important domestic economic data on tap. After all, that'd be silly given just how well markets have been able to ignore it in favor of European markets and geopolitical risk. That said, several of this week's reports can't be ruled out as market movers. That's especially true--as always--of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls, but we also get ISM Manufacturing data on Tuesday, and Non-Manufacturing on Thursday and again on Thursday, along ADP Employment (later than normal due to short week). All of these reports can move markets...(read more)

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  • MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Hold Narrow Range Overall; Some Month-End Volatility Around Treasury Close

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Overnight trading was uneventful for bond markets and made for a just slightly weaker open for both Treasuries and MBS. Economic data was completely and utterly ignored. It wasn't until headlines out of the UK concerning a "severe" terrorism alert sent UK bond yields sharply lower that US bond markets finally found some motivation to get moving. From there, liquidity waned severely, leaving the market open to any significant month-end trade flows. In other words, if there were to be even a normal amount of month-end trading around the 3pm Treasury close, it would have an inordinate impact considering it would comprise such a comparatively large piece of the action. That's exactly what happened as tradeflows began picking up at 2:59pm. Volume spiked easily to the highest levels...(read more)

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